EP 182: The Lumber Market Is Strongly Sideways

Source: https://www.podbean.com/eau/pb-7kppt-... The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now. With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber? Timeline 00:00 Bart Charles joins the show 01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand 04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”? 06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing 09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce 13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update 15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs 17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here? 19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways” 21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities 23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums? 29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk 31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability 32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs 34:28 Are traders still short lumber? 35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine 37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme 39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt 39:51 Locking in Q1 margins 40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now 41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge” Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com Guest Bart Charles BCharles@shamrockbm.com