Housing Inventory Grew — For the Wrong Reason

The market just put the odds of a September rate cut at zero — and flipped its base case to a hike instead, in the space of seven days. I break down the national numbers this week: mortgage rates, the 10-Year Treasury, the lender spread, purchase applications, jobless claims, price cuts, pendings and inventory. Next week I take all of it down to San Diego. New data every month → Subscribe so you don't miss it. 📌 WHAT'S COVERED: I open by owning a call I got wrong. Last month I told you national inventory was draining and about to fall below last year. It grew instead — and the reason it grew is the most useful thing in this month's data. Inventory rises two different ways: sellers flood the market, or buyers stop absorbing what's already there. On a chart those look identical. In real life they mean opposite things. New listings came in at 68,400 against 66,800 a year ago, so sellers arrived right on schedule. Which means the homes stacking up out there are not new arrivals — they're leftovers, and that inventory is aging. That's a stall, not a flood. I walk through the purchase application index running about 6% behind last year and why it tells you what pending sales look like in October, the lender spread at 1.98% and why that three-year gift is nearly spent, and the jobless claims number that looks fine on paper while the job market feels rough to anyone actually out there applying. Then the part that changed everything this month: the CME FedWatch tool now puts a 57% chance on the Fed raising rates on September 16th, and a 0% chance of a cut. I give you my own read on whether they actually move, and I close on the two levers still open to a buyer this fall — neither of which needs the Fed, prices to fall, or you to keep waiting. 📊 KEY DATA FROM THIS VIDEO: • 30-year fixed: 6.81% — sitting a hair under the 12-month high of 6.85%, against a 5.99% low in February • 10-Year Treasury: 4.64%, versus 4.28% at this point last year — worth about $220/mo on a $920,000 loan • Fed odds for September 16: 57% hike, 43% hold, 0% cut — reversed from 60/40 the other way one week earlier • Purchase applications: running about 6% behind last year, after leading it all year • Pending sales: 380,000 against 377,000 — still ahead, but by less than 1% • Inventory: 875,000 versus 861,000 — about 14,000 homes above last year • New listings: 68,400 against 66,800 — sellers showing up at close to last year's pace • Price reductions: 42%, dead even with last year, after running better than it all spring • Lender spread: 1.98%, down from 2.30% a year ago, against a 1.7% historical norm 🏠 WHO THIS IS FOR: If you're a San Diego home buyer sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to come down, this is the month the thing you're waiting for started moving away from you — and I show you the two levers that still lower your payment without it. And if you're watching the national housing market to figure out what San Diego real estate does next, I explain why our supply is running the opposite direction from the country's, and why that changes where your leverage actually sits. 📝 My Preferred Lender, Matt Kish Movement Mortgage 📱 909-434-7091 📨 Matt.Kish@movement.com Want to CONNECT with me Direclty? 📱 Call or Text: 619-829-2908 📨 Email: Karl@YourSanDiegoRealtor.com 📅 Scheduler: https://bit.ly/SchedulewithKarl 💵 Looking for a High Yield Savings Account? Here is the one I use. My affiliate link: https://ally.com/referral?code=7Z7S2B... 💵Do you pay rent? Here is how you can HACK your rent payments for future rent credits or travel/vacations. It's call the BILT reward credit Card. Check out my affiliate link at: https://bilt.page/r/IQVI-PK5I Let's connect on social! Tik Tok: ➡︎ / KarlSanDiego IG: ➡︎ / KarlKyler YT: ➡︎ @KARLisMyRealtor As always, Karl Kyler Your San Diego Realtor DRE 01439839 Exp Realty of Southern Califorina Inc ⏰ Timecodes ⏰ 00:00 Intro