The One Metric That Will Break San Diego's Housing Cushion

Everyone arguing about whether the San Diego housing market will crash is arguing about the wrong thing. One side says the bubble pops and takes everything down. The other says nothing's for sale here so prices can only go up. Both are wrong. I break down Harry Dent's crash call — the part he gets right, the part he gets wrong, and the one number that tells you when San Diego's cushion starts to disappear. New San Diego market breakdowns every week → Subscribe so you don't miss it. 📌 WHAT'S COVERED: I give Dent credit where it's earned: household formation fell to roughly 1.1 million last year, down from about 2 million a year during the pandemic, and the pile of finished unsold new homes is up 54% over two years — the highest since 2009. Then I show where it breaks, because that glut sits in Texas, Florida, Arizona and the Carolinas, not here — San Diego never overbuilt, and a crash also needs forced sellers we don't have when owners are sitting on huge equity and mortgages in the threes. But that doesn't make us safe, and this is the part almost nobody covers: months of supply is a ratio, not a count. We ended June with 3,047 detached homes for sale at 2.4 months of supply — hold the listings perfectly still, cut the buyer pool in half, and the same houses read out at roughly 4.8 months. So I walk through the two things that shrink demand without a single extra listing: the monthly payment, and sentiment contagion — a buyer here reading a bubble headline out of Tampa and deciding to wait. Then I give you the dashboard light I actually watch: pending sales, up 4.6% on detached and 13.7% on attached in June, and the month those roll over is the month our cushion starts shrinking. 🏠 WHO THIS IS FOR: If you're thinking about buying in San Diego and waiting for a crash to hand you a discount, this tells you what would actually have to happen first — and what it would really look like. And if you're a San Diego homeowner weighing a sale, this is the signal to watch long before it ever shows up in prices. 📝 My Preferred Lender, Matt Kish Movement Mortgage 📱 909-434-7091 📨 Matt.Kish@movement.com Want to CONNECT with me Direclty? 📱 Call or Text: 619-829-2908 📨 Email: Karl@YourSanDiegoRealtor.com 📅 Scheduler: https://bit.ly/SchedulewithKarl 💵 Looking for a High Yield Savings Account? Here is the one I use. My affiliate link: https://ally.com/referral?code=7Z7S2B... 💵Do you pay rent? Here is how you can HACK your rent payments for future rent credits or travel/vacations. It's call the BILT reward credit Card. Check out my affiliate link at: https://bilt.page/r/IQVI-PK5I Let's connect on social! Tik Tok: ➡︎ / KarlSanDiego IG: ➡︎ / KarlKyler YT: ➡︎ @KARLisMyRealtor As always, Karl Kyler Your San Diego Realtor DRE 01439839 Exp Realty of Southern Califorina Inc ⏰ Timecodes ⏰ 00:00 Intro