Mortgage Rates Just Hit 7.4%. So Why Won't Home Prices Crash?

Mortgage rates just hit 7.4%. Home sales are stuck below 4 million a year. And home prices are still going up. So why haven't they crashed? We followed the money: this isn't a crash, it's a standoff. Here's who's trapped, where prices are already cracking, and 3 moves that put you on the right side of this market. In this video: The payment math: $429,100 typical home, 10% down, 7.4% rate = about $2,674/month in principal and interest Trapped #1: owners locked into 3-4% mortgages who won't sell Trapped #2: first-time buyers competing with cash buyers (27% of sales) Trapped #3: recent FHA borrowers falling behind (11.8% delinquent) Where it's cracking: 21 of the 50 biggest markets have falling prices, record seller concessions, Florida foreclosures Move 1: check your city's months of supply Move 2: ask for a rate buydown, not just a price cut Move 3: judge the full monthly cost (taxes, insurance, HOA) What's happening to prices where you live? Tell us in the comments. SOURCES Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct 8, 2026: 30-year fixed 7.40% (6.30% a year earlier) https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms National Association of Realtors, Existing-Home Sales, August 2026: 3.98M annual pace; median $429,100 (+1.6%); inventory +5.9%, 4.9 months; 31 days on market; first-time buyers 30%; cash 27% https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-... Realtor.com analysis of FHFA National Mortgage Database: ~51.5% of mortgages at or below 4%, ~20% below 3% https://www.realtor.com/research/ Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, Q2 2026: FHA 11.79%, conventional 2.72% https://www.mba.org/news-and-research... ATTOM, Midyear 2026 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report: 227,548 properties with filings (+21%); Florida 1 in 373 housing units https://www.attomdata.com/news/market... ResiClub analysis of Zillow Home Value Index (via Fast Company, Sept 2026): 21 of 50 largest metros with year-over-year declines; Austin -27.6% from peak https://www.fastcompany.com/91610615/... NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, September 2026: 38% of builders cut prices (avg 6%), 66% used incentives https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economi... Redfin, August 2026: seller concessions in 44.7% of sales; Atlanta 72.8%, Houston 58.5% https://www.redfin.com/news/home-sell... Florida Realtors, August 2026: single-family median $415,000 (4.3 months supply); condo median $298,000 (7.7 months) https://www.floridarealtors.org/newsr... Payment figures are our own calculations (principal and interest only, 30-year fixed, 10% down). The family in the video is an illustrative example. DISCLAIMER This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, legal, or real estate advice. Talk to a licensed professional before making decisions about buying or selling a home. Narration is AI-generated. Stock footage via Pexels (pexels.com). #housingmarket #mortgagerates #realestate