The Fed Just Opened the Door to a Rate HIKE. Your Mortgage Barely Flinched.

Kevin Warsh got up at Jackson Hole on Friday and cracked the door on a rate HIKE. Odds of a September hike went from 35% to 57.5% overnight. Then the average lender moved the 30-year up six hundredths of a percent. On a $400,000 loan, that's $15.97 a month. Craig Garcia and Bill Mei break down what actually happened to the whole yield curve on Friday, why the part of it that touches your mortgage barely flinched, and why a Fed chair talking tough is better news for your rate than a Fed chair being nice. And then the number nobody covers: there is currently $101.53 a month of extra markup sitting in the average mortgage — six and a half times what Friday's headline cost. Where it comes from, who's actually charging it, and the one thing that makes it come down. CHAPTERS 0:00 The $15.97 headline 0:57 What Warsh actually said at Jackson Hole 2:18 Why Jackson Hole isn't just another Fed speech 3:17 The whole yield curve, translated into dollars 4:44 What lenders actually did Friday afternoon 5:49 The Fed's remote control has exactly one button 7:35 Why a 30-year mortgage prices off the 10-year 8:19 The real reason rates go up fast and down slow 9:56 Oil, the Strait of Hormuz, and why interest rates can't move a ship 12:01 Lending Bill $100 for thirty years: the grownup vs. the babysitter 13:51 What if Warsh had been nice on Friday? 15:17 Callback: the Treasury buyback episode gave us $5.30 16:29 Three ways this could be wrong 17:33 The markup: $101.53 a month nobody talks about 19:10 The one thing that brings it down 20:19 For agents: what to say to a rattled buyer, word for word 21:21 For homeowners: $75,000 vs $400,000, same damage 22:35 The four-second version THE NUMBERS IN THIS EPISODE 2-year Treasury +12.5 bp to 4.34% 10-year Treasury +5.6 bp to 4.726% 30-year Treasury +1.6 bp to 5.21% Average 30-year mortgage 6.81% (+0.06% Friday, per Mortgage News Daily) September hike odds 35.4% → 57.5% (CME FedWatch) PCE inflation 3.7% over 12 months, 4.1% over 6 Brent crude $90.69 Treasury buyback episode:    • The Treasury Just Doubled Its Bond Buyback...   *Subscribe for weekly market updates* on rates, inflation, jobs reports, and what actually moves mortgage pricing. 📍South Florida focus — national relevance. #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Fed #FannieMae #FreddieMac #MBS #Refinance #HomeBuying #SouthFloridaRealEstate 🎧 LISTEN & SUBSCRIBE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MORTGAGE REPORT 🔁 YouTube playlist (all episodes):    • South Florida Mortgage Report   📱 Subscribe & follow on your favorite platform: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5QxG2Pz... 📌 HELPFUL LINKS 📩 Housing Newsletter: Stay informed with curated mortgage and housing insights delivered straight to your inbox: https://housingnewsletters.com/craigg... ✅ Pre-Approvals 24/7: Get started anytime: ⁠ Option 1⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/rhx8h ⁠ Option 2⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/w2o7v