HEADS UP! Tornado Threat Returns w Chasers

Thanks Nitto helping us bring this coverage. Visit https://bit.ly/42m8lTU to check out the Terra Grappler G3....which are the tires we're trusting today 🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – Monday, November 2, 2026 (10:06Z Update) SPC Risk Level: ENHANCED (Level 3 of 5) Valid through November 2, 2026 6:00 PM CDT Monday 📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones 🟠 ENHANCED Risk: Enid, OK, Wichita, KS, Ponca City, OK, Hutchinson, KS 🟡 SLIGHT Risk: Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Salina, KS, Dodge City, KS 🟢 MARGINAL Risk: Amarillo, TX, Lawton, OK, Emporia, KS, Abilene, TX 🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones 🟡 10% Tornado Risk (supercells with a few tornadoes possible): Enid, OK, Wichita, KS, Ponca City, OK, Hutchinson, KS 🟢 2% Tornado Risk (isolated tornadoes possible): Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Salina, KS, Dodge City, KS What the Percentages Mean A 10% tornado risk means there is a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Supercell thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging winds are expected primarily across north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. 📝 Overview A large upper trough over the western U.S. is ejecting a strong shortwave trough and an 80+ knot mid-level jet into the southern Plains this afternoon. This dynamic setup, combined with widespread dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and strong low-level winds, will support the development of numerous thunderstorms from west-central Texas northward into Kansas and Nebraska. Early afternoon storms are expected to develop along a lead trough moving into western Oklahoma, with scattered activity tracking into southern Kansas. However, limited low-level instability will likely keep severe threats modest in this area. The primary severe threat will develop along the surface dryline over western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas by late afternoon, where supercell structures are favored. These storms will pose risks for damaging winds and a few tornadoes before evolving into a more linear convective line with increasing wind potential by early evening as a Pacific cold front advances. Further south into west-central Texas, the severe threat diminishes due to weaker low-level winds and less favorable dynamics, though a few damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes remain possible. ⛈️ Hazards Include 🧊 Some hail possible with supercells, generally small to moderate in size 🌪️ A few tornadoes possible, mainly late afternoon into early evening in OK and KS 💨 Damaging wind gusts likely, especially as storms evolve into a convective line 🕓 Timeline 12 PM–3 PM CDT: Scattered storms develop in western Oklahoma, limited severe risk 3 PM–7 PM CDT: Main severe threat with supercells along dryline in north-central OK and south-central KS 7 PM–10 PM CDT: Storms transition to a line with increasing damaging wind potential, moving southward into west-central TX 10 PM–12 AM CDT: Overnight evolution with diminishing severe threat 📌 Regional Notes 🟠 North-Central Oklahoma/South-Central Kansas → Enhanced Risk Area: Main focus for damaging winds and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening 🟡 Central Oklahoma → Slight Risk Area: Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds possible with scattered storms 🟢 West-Central Texas → Marginal Risk Area: Lower severe threat but some damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible ⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware Residents in north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas should remain alert this afternoon and evening as supercell thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes develop along the dryline. Conditions will evolve quickly, especially as storms transition into a line with enhanced wind risks. Keep informed with local forecasts and be prepared to take action if warnings are issued. #SevereWeather #SPC #OK #KS #TX #TornadoRisk #Hail #DamagingWinds ——————————— In-Vehicle Driver, Man-of-Action - @ReedTimmerWx Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial Engineer, Man-of-Iron - @willclay25 Studio Guy in the corner - @brianvotoole, but he doesn't really post anything. he's just laying in the cut, you know? Thanks United Cajun Navy - https://unitedcajunnavy.org/