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What If You Stopped Aging?

Wanderwhen

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What If You Stopped Aging?

20 просмотров · 11 дн. назад
Wanderwhen
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20 просмотров · 11 дн. назад
You will always be four years older than your little sister, Rosa. You just won't always look it. On your 25th birthday, your body stops aging, and it never starts again. Rosa grows up, then grows old. You don't. Here's what would actually happen, one year at a time: the perks, the paperwork, the one risk that never goes away, and the choice at the end. What's real and what's a story: the numbers are real (sources below), from the odds of dying at 25 to how passports, face scanners and pensions work. Rosa, your mom, Dr. Varga, the lab, the treatment and year 300 are a story. Nobody knows what a person who never ages would face, or what the world looks like 300 years from now. Sources • Death rates at 25 (about 1 in 711) and at 80 (about 1 in 18.5): CDC/NCHS, United States Life Tables, 2021, Table 1 (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/lif...) • The Gompertz law (adult risk of dying doubles roughly every 8–10 years; B. Gompertz, 1825): https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-... • The hallmarks of aging: López-Otín, Blasco, Partridge, Serrano & Kroemer, "Hallmarks of aging: An expanding universe", Cell 186 (2023), doi:10.1016/j.cell.2022.11.001 • Peak bone mass around ages 19–24: NHANES 2005–2014 analysis, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31760... • Jeanne Calment, 122 years and 164 days: Guinness World Records, https://guinnessworldrecords.com/worl... • US passports: valid 10 years for adults, with a photo from the last 6 months (US State Department, travel.state.gov) • Face comparison at borders: CBP's Traveler Verification Service, https://www.cbp.gov/travel/biometrics • Annual proof of life for pensions: e.g. https://www.service-public.gouv.fr/pa... • Accidents are the leading cause of death for ages 1–44: CDC WISQARS, leading causes of death by age group, United States 2022, https://wisqars.cdc.gov/pdfs/leading-... • Lobsters: about 10–15% die each year while molting (Maine Department of Marine Resources, via Smithsonian): https://www.smithsonianmag.com/scienc... • Naked mole rats: Ruby, Smith & Buffenstein, "Naked mole-rat mortality rates defy Gompertzian laws by not increasing with age", eLife 7:e31157 (2018): https://elifesciences.org/articles/31157 • "Something like a hundred thousand people a day" die of age-related causes: Aubrey de Grey's widely quoted estimate (about two thirds of all deaths worldwide) • Our own arithmetic: a constant 1-in-1,000 yearly risk (a careful 25-year-old's, since overdoses and traffic are about 40% of US deaths at 25–34) leaves about 74% alive at year 300. Narration voice: ElevenLabs (elevenlabs.io) Music: "Investigations" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... "Thinking Music" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... "Carefree" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... "Bossa Antigua" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... "Dreamer" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... "Gymnopedie No 1" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... "Dreams Become Real" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... Wanderwhen: one thing changes, and we follow what would actually happen. Subscribe for more what-ifs. #WhatIf #Aging #Science