Dry Halloween for Carlsbad, Floods Build Sunday | Your Daily Forecast — Saturday, October 31, 2026

A dry Halloween for Carlsbad — morning fog, then partly sunny at 71° with no alerts for Eddy County — while a Moderate flood risk builds over the Four Corners for Sunday, Arizona takes today's excessive-rainfall risk on near-record moisture, and Typhoon In-Fa turns away south of Japan — Your Daily Forecast zooms from the whole planet all the way in to Eddy County. WORLD — Typhoon In-Fa is the only active tropical cyclone on Earth: winds 215 km/h, 332 km south-southeast of Iwo To, tracking north at 15 km/h (JTWC via Zoom Earth, 09:00 UTC Oct 31), with the JTWC 00:00 UTC fix at 21.5°N 142.8°E and 115 kt. Friday evening it passed just east of Agrihan — Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan were under Typhoon Warnings and saw typhoon conditions. In-Fa is now slowing and turning poleward, with a recurve northeast expected after ~60 hours. The direct threat to Guam and Saipan has passed, but a High Surf Advisory and rip current statement run for the Marianas until 4 AM Monday (ChST): breaking waves 7–9 ft from In-Fa's long-period swell (NWS Tiyan, Guam). The NHC lists ZERO active storms in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. In India, cleanup continues after Cyclone Arnab's Oct 28 landfall (Visakhapatnam 315 mm, IMD). NATIONAL — A shortwave crosses the central U.S. while southwesterly flow pulls deep tropical moisture into the Southwest. SPC Day 1: NO severe thunderstorm areas forecast anywhere in the country today or tonight — a severe-free Halloween. Sunday brings a MARGINAL severe risk from central New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle (isolated damaging gusts late Sunday), and Monday a SLIGHT risk for northern Texas, western/central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. WPC today: SLIGHT RISK of excessive rainfall for portions of Arizona — PWATs 1–1.5 in, 4–6 standard deviations above normal, moisture transport up to ~750 kg/m/s, 1–2 in along the Mogollon Rim, much of it after midnight. Sunday: MODERATE RISK for the Four Corners — a high-impact event with ~18 hours of heavy rain on the San Juans, snow levels above 11,000 ft, and saturated soils. Florida's peninsula soaks Sunday (over 1 in nearly everywhere, over 2 in in many areas). NEW MEXICO — A Flood Watch covers northwestern and west-central New Mexico from late tonight through Monday morning (NWS Albuquerque, issued 1:38 AM today): Northwest Plateau, Chuska, Jemez and Tusas Mountains including Chama. Five river Flood Advisories are posted: the San Juan River at Shiprock (10.6 ft Friday; bankfull 13.5 ft; forecast crest 14.0 ft early Tuesday), the Animas River at Farmington and near Cedar Hill (the Farmington riverwalk floods at 10 ft), the La Plata River below Redmesa, and the San Francisco River at Reserve (10.0 ft; bankfull 13.0 ft). Albuquerque: partly sunny, 65° today, rain likely tonight at 60%, then a 97% soaking Sunday. Santa Fe: partly sunny near 60° today, rain after 2 AM tonight at 85%, and a flat 100% rain chance Sunday with gusts to 35 mph. CARLSBAD — A gray, calm start (cloudy, 57° early, humidity 88%, visibility 7 miles, KCNM) with patchy fog before 10 AM, then partly sunny with a high of 71° per NWS Midland/Odessa; rain chance just 4%. NO alerts are in effect for Eddy County — yesterday's Flood Watch has expired. Tonight: mostly cloudy, low 57°, rain 3% — a dry trick-or-treat evening. Sunday: morning fog, then mostly cloudy at 78°, as the clocks fall back (Sunday sunrise 6:14 AM / sunset 5:06 PM on the new time). Then a sunny, dry week: Mon 77°, Tue 71° (Election Day), Wed 76°, Thu 73°, Fri 72°. Sunrise today 7:13 AM / sunset 6:07 PM. Real radar and satellite imagery in every segment: NOAA GOES-19, Himawari-9 via NASA, NEXRAD radar composites, and NWS WSR-88D (KABX, KHDX) — all captured Saturday, October 31, 2026. Sources: NOAA/NWS (incl. NWS Midland-Odessa & Albuquerque, NWS Tiyan Guam), NHC, JTWC, SPC, WPC, India Meteorological Department reports. #weather #forecast #NewMexico #CarlsbadNM