GTA Market Is Starting to Shift | September 2026 Market Update

On paper, September was a soft month for Toronto real estate: sales in the city were down 6% from a year ago. But line up the last 13 months side by side and the market has been slowly tightening since January. In this update I walk through the GTA and the City of Toronto, why rising mortgage rates could stop that trend in its tracks, what it means for prices, and what to do if you’re buying or selling right now. CHAPTERS 0:00 September looked soft 0:27 The GTA 1:35 The City of Toronto 3:01 The rate story just flipped 4:04 What it means for prices 4:42 What to do: buyers and sellers 5:14 Which way does this go? SEPTEMBER 2026 AT A GLANCE (vs September 2025) Greater Toronto Area Sales 5,040 (-9.0%) | New listings 16,500 (-14.4%) Sales-to-new-listings ratio 37.8% (33.3% in January; under 40% = buyer’s market) Months of inventory 4.6 (5.0 in Jan/Feb) | Avg days on market 34 (33 a year ago) MLS HPI benchmark price -4.65% year over year (-8.00% in January) City of Toronto Sales 1,937 (-6.1%) | New listings 6,521 (-9.2%) | Active listings 9,865 (-7.4%) Sales-to-new-listings ratio 38.5%, highest in over a year (33.9% in January) Months of inventory 4.6 | Avg days on market 33 (32 a year ago) MLS HPI benchmark price -3.84% year over year (-8.08% in February) Condo apartments: almost half of all city sales; condo benchmark -6.36% year over year The rate story Inflation is back at 3.0% (August CPI). Fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, not the Bank of Canada, and that yield hit a one-year high in September. Best 5-year fixed is around 4.3% (Ratehub, Oct 6) and has been creeping up. Pulling the other way: Toronto unemployment is 6.8%, down from 9.0% a year ago. The rule I go by: listings and sales move first, prices follow by three to six months. The thing to watch from here is the 5-year bond yield. Which way do you think this goes: rates settle, or rates climb? Tell me in the comments. Want to know what this means for your street? DM me your street and I’ll get you the numbers. SOURCES TRREB Market Watch, September 2025 through September 2026. Statistics Canada CPI, August 2026. Canadian Mortgage Trends, September 10, 2026. Ratehub.ca, October 6, 2026. Ratio and months of inventory are TRREB’s 12-month trend figures. The MLS HPI benchmark compares like with like; average prices shift with which homes sold. ANTONY MALFARA | Co-Team Lead, Property Boys | Broker, Royal LePage Signature Realty 416-709-0988 | antonymalfara@propertyboys.ca Not intended to solicit clients under contract with another brokerage. #TorontoRealEstate #GTARealEstate #TorontoHousingMarket